Wednesday, July 22, 2020

GonZalo a Go...Hanna Soon To Follow...

Just a quick morning update.   As most of you know, NHC did finally name Gonzalo this morning, but it remains way out in the central Atlantic.  The forecast track brings it to the Windward (southern) Islands as a high end Tropical Storm on Saturday before weakening him as it moves into the eastern Caribbean.  AT THIS TIME, it appears Gonzalo will not be our problem, but he is still a long way out.  Computer models weaken him and make a wave, but following him might be our next (I) name storm next week?


Gonzalo has a compact cluster of clouds around his center and don't be surprised for him to approach hurricane force today or tomorrow before wind shear and Saharan dust enter the picture.  Closer to home...


 

The disturbance/Tropical Wave over the SE Gulf is becoming better organized and NHC has increased the chances for development to 50%.  From what I'm seeing, it may already be a depression as there has been a burst of storms (reds & oranges) around where there might be a center of rotation.  A recon plane is scheduled to investigate this afternoon, but if I were a betting man, I'd place my bets on TD # 8 or even Hanna later this afternoon.  All models show whatever forms staying well south of the LA/MS coasts with the heavy rain threat remaining offshore aiming at the central Texas coast.  Will update later today.  Stay tuned!

2 comments:

Dvdman said...

GFS and other models disagree with you Bob in reference to SE not receiving any weather from the Gulf system.

Anonymous said...

Bob is literately lost without models. Just gives numerous forecasts then punts his chest when one of them comes to light.