Looking For Gonzalo...

After an early start to the season with an active late May & June, the Tropics have been in a lull for the past several weeks.  That is changing as we are entering the Tropical Wave season coming off of Africa and heading across the MDR (Main Development Region) of the Atlantic.

You can see 3 waves over Africa with a 4th out over the central Atlantic.   That one and the 2nd one coming off Africa have the better chances of becoming our next named storms.  In fact, NHC has increased the chances for development of the 1st system to 80%...translation, it's gonna happen.  Look for Tropical Storm Gonzalo to be named either late today or tonight if it continues to show organization.  Since it is so far out, NHC might start out making it TD 7 before naming it.

Closer to home, the cluster of storms over the western Gulf is moving inland with no development, but NHC is giving the wave over Cuba a 40% chance to develop as it gets over the central and western Gulf.  NHC has cancelled the Recon flight for this afternoon, so they don't expect any rapid development.  What I see on satellite loops is an exposed well defined surface swirl out ahead of the cluster of storms with only a few clouds around it.  There is an upper low over the western Caribbean that might be creating some wind shear, but that is expected to weaken leaving the Gulf swirl the opportunity to develop, which the Euro model does by Thursday.  The bulk of whatever forms here will stay mainly south of the Louisiana coast and head westward into Texas.  My thoughts are Gonzalo will be named out in the Atlantic and Hanna forming over the western Gulf late Thursday into Friday.  At least we have something to talk about other than the virus & heat!

The axis of the Bermuda High is to our north meaning we'll stay with a SE surface flow for the rest of this week.   Look for typical daytime heating type storms to bubble up giving us some relief from the heat.   Right now the Tropics are getting active, but we have nothing to get nervous about here.  Stay tuned!