Westward Track Trend Disturbing...

During my 4o+ years tracking hurricanes, I was taught early on that 1) if you can avoid the eyewall winds and 2) stay on the weaker (usually right side) of the storm, your damage will be much less.  That is why I follow the NHC centerline track so closely since it let's me know which direction NHC is trending on moving the storm.   If you just look at the cone, it's hard to tell that NHC has significantly shifted that centerline track to the west (closer to us) during the past 24 hours.

The top graphic is from last night while the bottom is from this morning.   Now look at the tighter centerline track movement.

The top graphic is yesterday afternoon (Landfall near West Palm Beach) with the middle from last night (closer to Miami) versus this morning which is along Florida's west coast.   Will this trend continue?  Maybe not, but if it does then the danger become landfall somewhere over the northern Gulf.

The difficulty right now is the Recon planes have been unable to find a center and without an accurate initialization point, those model forecasts may not be right.

The next advisory comes out at 10 AM.  Check that centerline track to see if that westward shift continues.   RIGHT NOW, this looks to be a Florida storm.   It's way too early to get nervous here, but I just wanted to alert you not to think we're in the clear either.  I'll update later this afternoon after 4 PM.