Still Waiting For Laura, Marco...

Some of you have replied that you are getting nervous over these 2 disturbances.  So far I am not since neither has done what NHC has expected.   Satellite views continue to show TD 14 looking better than 13, yet neither has any storms around their center of circulation.

TD 13 continues to look ragged and there has been little change to NHC's thinking or forecast track.  They still expect it to become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf early next week.  IF it were to come here, our landfalling day would be on Wednesday.

Closer to us, TD 14 appears to be better organized on the Visible(daylight) loop, but again there are no storms around the center which NHC relocated farther to the south.   They have shifted the track closer to the Central American coast and that should keep it from rapidly developing.  They have shifted the center line track slightly to the east (closer to us) and much of SE LA. is now within the cone of error.   Past experience tells me computer models don't do well with weaker systems.   We need to wait until either of these shows signs of developing before we get nervous.   Remember the MJO is not yet into the favorable (rising air) phase and that might be why both have been slow to organize?  We watch and we wait.

Today was the most comfortable day in months as highs stayed in the 80s and dew points dipped into the 60s. 

Driving the drier air southward is an unusual (for August) deep upper trough that is producing lots of storms on its eastern side.  The water vapor clearly shows the dry air over the western Gulf.  Right now the Gulf is a hostile environment for tropical development due to the dry air and wind shear.  That trough is  to lift out before either disturbance arrives next week,   Might update again later tonight just to show the smoke over the western states. Stay tuned!