3 Cold Fronts Coming Next Week...

This weekend will still feel a little summer-like into Monday, but then several waves of cooler air will surge down from the north making the first week of October feel delightful.  Below is the upper air map for Tuesday midday showing a sharp dip in the jet stream that creates a deep trough over the east.

The middle chart is the upper air for Friday morning telling me there will be several fronts coming down out of Canada.  The air in southern Canada is not too chilly yet, but look farther to the north and it's below freezing.  I expect the first front to arrive after dark on Monday with the 2nd re-enforcing front by Friday and another over the weekend.  Each one should be a little cooler so that by Friday nights on the North Shore will be in the 50s and also away from Lake P. south.  With these fronts coming, you might be singing "turn out the lights, the party's over!".  However, several model runs are hinting that there will be some tropical development in the southern Gulf in the 10-14 time frame.  Do I expect any more major hurricane threats here?  Nope since the water temps have cooled across the northern Gulf from Laura & Sally.  Lake Pontchartrain was 85-88 during Laura and now it's in the 75-78 range.   I am holding off on calling "The Fat Lady" to sing until I see how really strong these coming fronts turn out to be.   In the short term, we have no fronts coming this weekend.  Temps are held down due to cloud cover & showers along the east coast & Gulf South, but note how warm it still is at Omaha & Denver.  At least our dew points have dropped into the 60s making it feel nice outside.

We have seen some low clouds linger over us at times even through Beta is long gone.

These clouds should gradually dissipate as I don't expect much rainfall until the front arrives Wednesday evening.  Most of next week then turns dry & cooler.

Right now the Tropics are asleep and our focus shifts from off of Africa to the Western Caribbean & Gulf.  Historically, we can get Hurricanes here into late October (Juan 1985), but after the first 7-10 days of the month, no major hurricane (evacuation required) has crossed the LA. Coastline during modern times.   I'm liking our odds that we are done for this season, except for some threat that will be steered well to our south and east as the fronts start coming and get stronger.  Stay tuned!