Beta Being Blasted...

What the heck is going on?  Satellite and radar loops are showing Beta is a system that is being attacked by Dry air and upper shear that has certainly weakened its appearance tonight.

Once we lose the daylight pictures, it's very hard to spot a surface center.  However, let me try.

The top pic shows where I think the center is (arrow), but look at the lack of the bright colors/colder cloud tops.  The water vapor shows extremely dry air west of beta and some SW shear over us.  Radar returns have diminished dramatically during the past several hours and surface pressure are RISING!

NHC is still keeping the max winds at 60 mph, but that's only over a small area.  They agree it has weakened and that is reflected in their intensity forecast that does not make this a hurricane.  Here's the 10 pm updated track.

Even though Beta's current motion is NNE at 2 mph, all guidance indicates it must turn to the west.  Plus look at the intensity guidance that really weakens it to a weak Tropical Storm or even a Depression as it nears the Texas Coast.  So what will make Beta go west.   As I explained on an earlier post, Hurricane Teddy could be a main reason as he moves up the east coast blocking the exit of a large, cold surface high over the northeast.  Take a look at what is now and what the GFS model predicts for next Tuesday.

Since our surface pressures are going up, that tells me Beta can't push out the building high and must move to the west.  More importantly, look at the drier dew points that are being drawn into Beta.

This system could just weaken down to a weak area of low pressure during the next 2 days.  regardless, the impacts here and over in Texas will be the heavy rain potential.

Most of the 10-15" amounts are still focused on the upper Texas coast and along the LA. coast from Pt. Fourchon westward.  One thing that is happening locally is our seas are increasing as the surface wind direction shifts from the NE around to more easterly.  Look for tides to remain above normal for the next several days.

Our gusty winds are more the result of the interaction between Beta and the large surface high over the Northeast.  I know many of you have mentioned that the models have been worthless during Sally & now with Beta.  Just remember with Sally, we did NOT have the amount of cooler and dry air surrounding her.  The environment around Beta is far more hostile.  Even IF the models are totally wrong and Beta continues coming our way, it is not much of a storm.  Tropical systems thrive with a warm, moist environment around them, but that is not the case tonight.   I'll probably not post again until after the 10 AM advisory tomorrow, unless something strange happens overnight.  Stay tuned!