In yet another confusing development, Tropical Storm Beta is now stationary. It was expected to slow down when it approached the Texas coast, but it has stopped way before what the forecast indicated. There has been little change to the thinking as models still take it inland over Texas.
The European model brings Beta to the coast well SW of Houston as a Tropical Storm on Monday and then moves it inland and weakens it Tuesday & Wednesday. The official NHC forecast follows the Euro except it does not take it as far inland. It also no longer makes Beta a hurricane.
In their discussion, they again point out all the dry air over Texas and how that SHOULD keep Beta from becoming a hurricane. Wouldn't it be nice for Beta to keep drifting into Texas and dissipate? That could happen since we have a large surface high to the north that will be drawn southward by the circulation of Hurricane Teddy as he moves off the East Coast.
To be clear, I am NOT nervous about Tropical Storm Beta causing major impacts here. We have received a good soaking rain today, but if Beta begins to move west and weaken, we should slowly see our weather improve, especially later next week.
The cloud shield with Beta is attached to the lower end of a cold front that has pushed into the northern Gulf. The huge T-Storm cluster to its NE earlier today is almost gone while a smaller cluster of storms (red colors) remains around the center. Again the main concerns are heavy rainfall that I feel is more likely along the upper Texas and western Louisiana coasts.
For nearly 4 decades I preached to follow the center line track trend as typically the eastern side is the wet & more dangerous side and the west side is much drier with far fewer impacts. Look at this storm. Texas is dry while we are wet. We want that center line to keep moving farther to the west once inland over Texas. I don't want to see it move back out over the Gulf. Next post around 10 PM. Stay tuned!
25 comments:
Thank you so much!
Thanks
So Bob has just told us that it's been raining all day. You figured that out all by yourself Bob, or did you need the computer models to help with that observation?
You're the best Bob!
Thank you Mr Breck. I appreciate your updates!
Thank you Bob. Your post brings us some relief. We truly understand though that the situation is subject to change per various factors.
Vinson & Claire Serio
Why do you even read his posts?
Still rely on you, Bob! Thank you.
My husband is on a ship between Flower Gardens and Fourchon. 70 to 80 knot winds and huge seas. Seems Beta is a lot larger or stronger that they are letting on!
Dude you really must have lost a little league game or something to bob.
Or you’re a transplant. Either way, kindly shut it, up >.>
Stop being an a$$. If you don't like what he has to say then stop following him. No one needs your negative a$$.
don't worry they will all get it right the day of and pat themselves on the back. (just don't look at the prev five days of forecast wink wink)
Hey anonymous. Bob doesnt need your negativity. Hes got enough to deal with with that unknown person
The fact is I have followed Bob for years and although he is a nice guy he doesn't really give his "forecast" for what a tropical system will do. He loves to lay out everything possible scenario while knocking the official forecast. Why? It has become old over the years.
Can't tell you how much I appreciate your posts. Thank you.
Thanks, Bob, your words of wisdom are much appreciated. I'm not sure why that idiot keeps popping up & berating you, but he or she needs to grow the BLEEP up! What a waste of time & space on your helpful blog!
That being said, I'm curious if the MJO has gone back to a more favorable phase now? I'd also love to hear your thoughts on climate change/global warming affecting these storms. I wonder if it's time to "get outta dodge" if we're going to have many more years like this? I'm getting too old for this storm dodging & have definitely developed serious "hurricane fatigue." Again, Bob, thank you!
Bob's "forecast" goes something like this: the storm might come here if this happens, but then again, if that happens, it might not come here. STAY TUNED!
With all the storms this year, and we don’t get anything. I’m disappointed!
With all the storms this year, and we don’t get anything. I’m disappointed!
That about sums it up! Anonymous, why are you so disappointed to NOT have tropical weather? You're obviously a risk-taker, have no life/family you care about, or a home where you wish to live the rest of your life. You have no idea how much your homeowners & flood insurance will increase after you've been flooded. Been there, done that! I think this "person" is a teenage troll, so get lost!
Your homeowners & federal flood insurance doesn’t automatically increase ... or how about this idea DON’T LIVE BELOW SEA LEVEL.
I just love hurricanes. It’s what keeps me going!
Jerry P, I was born & raised in NOLA. Where are you located to be so judgemental? My family is here & believe me, my flood insurance was astronomical after Katrina until I found my original certificate of elevation & that cut my premium in half. It's only going to keep increasing, though, so I'm wondering if it's time to cut my losses & leave for good. We lived in NC for 1 & 1/2 yrs after Katrina & I know what it's like to miss NOLA.
I'll admit tropical storms & hurricanes are kind of thrilling, but what's not is leaving your home the day before Katrina & never seeing it again until Christmas. Also, watching your daughter, who was a senior in high school, observing her whole world crashing down while moving to another state & having to start all over again. I'm so proud of how resilient she was, but it almost killed her at the time.
Here's my take on this whole criticizers posting > I think we ALL should IGNORE them! When NO ONE acknowledges them any more they will STOP! All they want is the attention!
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