After staying stationary over night, it appears Hurricane Sally is starting her move to the north. NHC's new 4 AM track hasn't changed taking the center line to the MS/AL state line and then over Mobile. If that track proves true, our local impacts here will be minimal with very little, if any, rainfall, some gusty winds & higher water/surge.
Since NHC is becoming more confident in the model forecasts, they have taken us out of the Hurricane Warning area moving it from Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River eastward to Navarre Beach. Also, even though Sally's inner core looks intact, Recon planes have found lower wind speeds despite lower pressures. She is now a Cat. 1 and is NOT expected to become a Cat. 2 anymore.
So what am I seeing this morning? 1st of all, on the infrared color views, there appears to be multiple mid level centers rotating around the main center. There is no apparent eye feature that would indicate development/strengthening. In addition, look at the 2 radar views below that are 12 hours apart.
The top photo is from 7 pm last night while the bottom is from 7 AM today. You can see how the northern rain band has now drifted northward into Alabama, plus how the center, which was SE of the mouth of the River, is now east of the mouth, a slight movement to the north. Officially, NHC has it moving NW at 2 mph. Shelby showed a great graphic a while ago on FOX 8 telling why Sally will make the turn and head away from us. Remember last night I show the surface map with a large high to the north centered over Michigan. Look at this morning's map.
The center has shifted from Michigan to New York so I would expect Sally will begin a faster movement to the north/coast later this afternoon. Since she remains lop sided with most of the rain/squalls on the north and east sides, West of Gulfport will see little impacts.
Our local wind direction remains NNE meaning Sally will stay to our east. There is NOTHING that indicates Sally will turn back to the west and threaten SE LA/NOLA. The main impacts will stay from Gulfport eastward to Florida.
Finally, I've mentioned that September is National Childhood Cancer Awareness Month and that my wife, Brenda, is a board member for CAPS FOR KIDS, a national non-profit based in New Orleans for children battling cancer. They help create smiles for children with cancer by connecting them with their celebrity hero to autograph their baseball caps to wear during their chemo treatments filling the child with hope & courage & making them feel special. September is the main fundraiser for CAPS FOR KIDS called "Give a High Five" asking you to donate $5 or more. Many of you have already done so and we thank you. If you haven't donated yet, click on the link below. Thank you again.
9 comments:
So that means it's safe to go buras,louisiana or not?
Thank you, Bob, for the peace of mind you provide us! We gladly donated $10 to the Caps for Kids! I hope others will, too!🤩
when will you see if the fat lady is available?
Thank everyone for using this blog. I've always appreciated your support over the decades. Bob
You da best bob!
Mr. Bob always remember you'll get someone every year criticizing something but please continue your insight. Thanks for your educated advice. Prayers for our East neighbors!
Mr.Bob - the way you break things down, I now am able to understand how different factors give different outcomes. I have learned about wind shears , low VS high pressure, etc etc etc. I have more confidence in making decisions on whether to get nervous or relax. Thanks Bob! I’ve been a fan since a Child ❤️❤️❤️
Bob, we are 15 miles north of Mobile.If we make it through this storm I will be giving to
Caps For Kids. Thank you for your updates. Have followed you since we lived lived in New Orleans for 10 years.
Moved from New Orleans to SW Florida 20 years ago but I still rely on you for all Hurricane and storm info. Thanks for the all the hard work.
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