The Fronts Are Coming, The Fronts Are Coming...

Yesterday I showed you the 500 mb (18,000') upper air prediction for this Friday that would drive cold fronts down to the Gulf South.   Just to confirm, this is the 12Z model run from this morning valid at daybreak on Friday.

Better news is that trough will hang around for most of next week meaning we will see a series of cold fronts coming.   Why should we care?   Well for those true weather Geeks who look at all models, this is the GEFS/GFS forecast for 2 weeks (14 days) from today showing a tropical storm or hurricane over the SE Gulf.

To some of you, that may look scary.  But to me I see another Wilma (2005) type storm that came out of the Caribbean to the Yucatan and then made a bee line to south Florida.  IF something does form (2 weeks out? c'mon!) it can't come our way and the westerly winds across the Gulf will turn it to the east.  In addition, the water temps will be way down with all these fronts coming.  So If you hear the doom & gloomers trying to stir up some panic, "forgit about it" and tell them you've already seen "the special man!"

NHC is watching a system out in the Atlantic that does have a surface circulation.  They give it a low chance (30%) to develop due to it encountering some upper wind shear.   that is NOT the system the GFS sees forming in 2 weeks.  The Caribbean & Gulf are quiet and we now will focus on the coming fronts.

The first weak front moves through over night bringing lower dew points (drier air) for the next 2-3 days.  It won't be much cooler except at night.  The real deal arrives on Friday with lows over the weekend in the 40s & 50s with highs in the 70s.   More fronts will be coming next week, but none of them will have any serious chill as it's too early for the "Polar Vortex" to show up.  I will be bringing out my sweaters from the attic as I'll need them this weekend.   It's exciting to watch the change in seasons.  Now if only our leaves would show colors like up north!   Stay tuned!