Turn out The Lights, The Partys Over...

Many years ago, I began a tradition of using an old Willie Nelson song to declare the end of major hurricane threats for SE LA/MS.  We still can get a late October scare, but the evacuation type storm threats are over. I looked up the origins of that song and found it was written in 1955 and recorded by a clean shaved Willie Nelson in 1967.  It was not a big hit until Dandy Don Meredith began using it on Monday Night Football to signal that the outcome of the game was no longer in question.  He would say..."the game is not over until The Fat Lady sings."  Well tonight is the night and Our Lady is on stage.

"Turn out the lights, the party's over & they say that all good things must end.  Call it a night, the party's over & tomorrow starts the same old thing again."   After Don resurrected that song, Willie began using it to close out his concert dates.   The lyrics really don't fit our hurricane season, except to say our "party" is over.   Let me be clear, we still could get a named storm to threaten us during the last 2 weeks of this month, but the threat for a major hurricane hitting us is over.  As for November, there has NEVER been a hurricane cross the LA. coast after October.  So yes there are still 7+ weeks left to hurricane season, and this is 2020, but the risk locally has diminished.  Why?  Cold fronts & cooler water temps.

The current surface map has our next front almost here with another coming on Sunday.  The middle graphic is current water temps in the Gulf with the southern gulf still warm.  The bottom graphic is the deeper oceanic heat content that shows what Hurricanes Laura & Sally did to cool the northern Gulf. NHC is still following 2 areas for development tonight.

The area over the eastern Caribbean shows no signs of organizing and models don't do much with it as it heads westward.

However, the disturbance over the western Caribbean clearly has some banding features and could become Gamma as soon as tomorrow.  A recon flight is scheduled for tomorrow PM.   But look what the models do with it.  It can't come north due to the blocking surface high and upper East coast trough that will keep the fronts coming.  The bottom view is the GFS for next Tuesday taking Gamma deep down into the Bay of Campeche.   That's why Our Lady is belting out "Turn out the Lights, the party's over!"   Enjoy this great weather and stay tuned!