The top graphic is from 10 PM last night while the bottom is the 4 AM new track. Yep, they're almost identical and that's not likely to change much UNLESS something happens that the models can't handle.
You can see on the satellite view how the colder air has pushed off the Texas coast and is moving into the Gulf. What effect will that have on Zeta as it comes northward? I don't know. NHC is believing not much affect since they keep Zeta a hurricane at landfall.
It's very clear Zeta's circulation is intact after passing over the northern tip of the Yucatan. The question is, will it regain strength and become a Cat. 1 or 2? NHC's thinking says yes. Here's the 10 AM track.
Virtually no change from the 4 AM. They have brought down the current max winds to 65 mph, but they expect those to go back to 85 mph as the storm pulls away from the land areas. Forward speed is NW at 14 and that is likely to increase. Zeta will be a short duration event.
16 comments:
Are you boarding windows
Ugh! You don't think it could be a 2, do you? I really hope not!
The storm passed over the Yucatan and to me looks like it will be more westerly than what the nhc is predicting.
Be safe everyone. You are all in my prayers. Love from New York
Watching the radar, the storm is encountering wind shear. Bob talked about the wind shear. If I ever own a race horse I'll name him wind shear. And "Wind Shear"
of Southeast Louisiana is the Triple Crown Winner.
What weight will a 75 mph wind move? That's something I never see. Specifically, will a 75 mph wind move a 100 pound planter if it is pushed against the house?
Hi Bob- Love your updates and follow them religiously- respect you very much! I'm curious on your thoughts as to what's been so different about the 2020 season- the fat lady was fooled by the weather and sang early, the MJO unfavorable didnt protect us as we expected it to- I know its not global warming- just curious on your thoughts on why so active so late in the season even with cool gulf water temps and cold fronts
GFS models showing gusts of mid-80's in NOLA with current track. Why do you anticipate gusts only in 50-60's?
Thanks Bob!
looks like it will be a great day on the lake for sailing tomorrow mid-day!
So much for the theory of cool gulf waters and October cold fronts protecting the Gulf Coast.
Thanks, Bob! We wait for your blog during these times. We'd be lost without you. The only complaint we have is that we are in South Mississippi and are not happy with the track. Can't you do something about that? (:
hoping for at least 50-60 mph sustained here in Metairie.
In my opinion,Probably not
Wind shear? There is zero wind shear where Zeta is right now. Hence why the NHC expects it to become a hurricane again.
Let me guess, Cantore got a deal on a room at da Island View!
--Bill
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