O Canada...How Cold Can You Be?

The coldest temperature ever recorded for New Orleans was 6 degrees on Feb. 13, 1899.  That measurement was for Audubon Park.  The new official recording station for NOLA is now MSY, but that station didn't start measuring until 1946.  Regardless, the coldest here happened during the second week in February.   I mention this because the coldest air in many years has invaded the northern Plains pouring southward out of a frigid Polar blast in Central Canada.

45 to 50 below zero in Canada is quite remarkable being that the nights have been getting shorter & the days longer since Dec. 21st.  The question for us is...will that Arctic air mass make it down to the Deep South?  And, will there be any moisture around that could produce some exciting weather for us?  It all will involve the upper air pattern.

The top graphic is the GFS run from this morning with the bottom view valid for NEXT Sunday.  It appears to me that the trough should be deep enough to drive a freeze threat down to us for NEXT weekend.  However, since the axis of the trough is already to our east, I don't see any moisture lingering to produce any frozen precipitation.   But that could change since it's still over a week away.

In the short term, the West is clear & sunny while the central Plains to the East Coast is dealing with clouds and another snow storm.   This one should be as strong as last week, but it could leave 3-5" over the big cities of the Northeast.  We have some lingering showers around that's making for an ugly Saturday.

Yesterday's front has stalled just to our south while it's clear where the Arctic boundary is to our north.  We'll get back into the warm air for Monday through Thursday with the real cold arriving on Friday.  I may start bringing my potted plants into my He-Shed before Friday, but I'll wait another couple of days before deciding.

There will not be a freeze threat until next weekend and we'll even see some 70+ days before the cold blast arrives.  Note, just south of NOLA it's 65-70 while north of the Lake is in the 40s.   So relax for this weekend, watch the Super Bowl  and then focus on whether the Big Chill is coming for next weekend.  I'm thinking Tampa 34 Kansas City 31 in a shootout.  Stay tuned!