Remember, These Guys Are Good...

There is a promo for the PGA tour showing golfers making great shows with the slogan "these guys are good".  They have the highest skills doing what they do.  So too with SPC (Storm Prediction Center) in Norman, Oklahoma where they issued "convective outlooks" highlighting areas at the highest risk for severe weather.   Usually they are right on with tornadoes/damaging storms developing in these highlighted areas.  The risk areas are ranked from 1-5 with 5 meaning greatest risk.

It's not often that they issue a level 5 risk, but today they have a large area from NE Louisiana eastward into central Alabama.   The bullseye is well to our north, but as Stephanie Abrams said on The Weather Channel this morning, this risk area is not like a Hurricane Risk area where we know everyone will experience the threat.   Instead, this risk area means not everyone will see a tornado, but if your in such an area, it's highly likely SOMEONE will get a tornado.   Note all of the North Shore is in the 3-4 level risk, and that is very high for us.   We need to pay attention this afternoon and tonight in case warnings are issued.  make sure your FOX 8 Weather App is up to date and set to alert you for local warnings.

Right now all of the watches are well to our north and west, but that will change especially this afternoon whenb daytime heating will create the greatest instability/lift over us.

The trigger for storms is an upper level disturbance (arrow) over the Texas Panhandle that will drag a cold front eastward.  Already there is a line of strong (not severe yet) storms ahead of the front.

We will be in the warm sector all day with temps in the 80s and dew points 70+.  All of the ingredients are there for a severe weather outbreak.  This will be a one day event with the greatest threat coming after 4 pm so you have most of today to get things done.

In addition, NWS has issued a wind advisory for us so expect this morning's 10-20 mph winds to increased to 20-30 with gusts over 40 late this afternoon.  I'll have another post around 4 PM. Make sure your family and friends are aware of our severe weather threat for this afternoon and this evening.  Stay tuned!