Widespread Tornado Outbreak Late Wednesday?

Historically, our tornado "season" is March & April with the threat lifting westward and northward in May & June.   It comes as no surprise that a possible outbreak is expected right where climatology says it should happen.

SPC has the bullseye for greatest risk (Moderate Level 4) north of us, however note parts of the North shore are in level 3.  The trigger for severe weather is another upper disturbance coming out of the Rockies.

The difference between this system and the one that caused the Denver blizzard is it's tracking at a much lower latitude.

The top graphic is this morning's upper air flow at 500 mb.  The middle is valid for Wednesday evening with the bottom valid for Thursday evening.  Notice how the center that caused the Denver blizzard has pulled up into the Dakotas and will dissipate while the projected track of this new system comes across Oklahoma, Arkansas & Tennessee bringing the severe threat farther south.

As the upper energy approaches on Wednesday we'll stay in the warm air sector.  Notice dewpoints are near 70 indicating plenty of low level moisture is available.   With the predicted fast movement of the upper low, we are not expecting any excessive heavy rainfall here,  In fact, the bullseye for heaviest rains are well to our north and east.

Models are saying we'll get only .50-1.00+ which should not cause any flooding concerns.  The fast moving front should be gone by Thursday morning bringing in a nice stretch of cooler & drier air.

This will not be the last cold front as another is expected to roar through during the last week in March.  Once into April, fronts usually just bring us some rain and drier air.  The next 4-6 weeks should be a wonderful time to live in the Deep South as Winter tries to linger up north.  Stay tuned!