Surprise...Oh What A Feeling...

In my post yesterday, I was lamenting the fact it looked like the good feel air would not make it to us.   But nooooo weather breath, was I wrong!   A surge of cooler and drier air arrived before sunset and made over night temps (40s) chilly on the North Shore and comfy cool (50s) south of Lake P.  All of the clouds and moisture was pushed into the Gulf with only around the mouth of the river staying in the clouds.  Embarrassed? Yes!  Complaining?  Absolutely not!

That front is now down over the Gulf, but not for long as it will return to the north on Tuesday bringing back the clouds and a few showers.

Notice the cold gathering across Montana and Wyoming with a warm surge out ahead of it.   We'll jump back into the warm air sector for Tuesday & Wednesday before that cold surge arrives for Thursday through the weekend.  The reason for cold air returning is the predicted flip in the upper winds that bring an East Coast trough by Thursday.

The top graphic is today's upper winds that have gone mainly west to east over us.  The next graphic is valid for Thursday morning showing a NW flow over us.  The 7 day clearly shows the big drop in temperatures coming for later this week into Easter Sunday.  With plenty of sunshine, if you're dressed for it, it will be delightful to be outside.  Finally, I'm sure you all heard about the deadly flash flooding around Nashville?

Over 10+" fell creating similar flooding like the 2010 flood.  My concern is some of that water will be flooding west of Nashville heading into the Mississippi River during the next week.   That will then head our way during the first 2 weeks in April.  So far, the local River Forecast Office of NWS has not raised the crest on the Mississippi here.

I get nervous when the predicted crest nears 15 feet.  That's not counting more rain coming in April.  The next system coming out of the Rockies will not be as intense with the rain bullseye (2-3") centered south of Nashville   If that's all that falls, it should not add on to the future crest.  You can see on the satellite pictures which side of the Mississippi has received the recent rainfall.

Note all the fires from Texas up into Missouri while east of the River there are no fires.   I always love to look for little features that tell the weather story.   Don't put away those sweaters yet as you'll need them later this week.  Stay tuned!