Weak Front Staggers Through For Now...

As we head towards the summer months, weather changes become more subtle due to the weakening of surface fronts and the increasing higher sun angle.  Yesterday we were near 90 with SSE winds bringing in lots of Gulf humidity.  Today we are 5-8 "less hot" with winds coming from the north.  Was that a front pushing through?

No it's not a sweater & jacket front, but it looks like it has pushed just south of us with a band of showers along the coast.  Dew points have fallen into the high 60s with some 50s just to our north.  Those coastal showers are quite heavy and are not moving so some folks could get 1-2" in a short period of time.

It won't stay there for long as we still have a stalled upper low over Mexico producing a SW flow with lots of clouds and showers back over Texas.

Note the lightning with the storms off the central Texas coast.  Models finally begin moving the low rather quickly to the NE on Sunday and that should bring a better rain chance along with the risk for some severe storms.

So the better rain chances will be late Saturday night into midday on Sunday with another round of strong storms coming Late Tuesday into Wednesday.  IF models are correct, the front coming next Thursday will actually bring some cooler air back, especially at night.  The top graphic is the severe threat (level 2) valid for Sunday.

My only concern comes from the 5 day rainfall graphic that has 3-5"+ across central & south Louisiana.  What we don't want to happen is for the frontal boundary to stall over us (like some past May floods) that could create a training effect.  No signs of that happening yet.  Stay tuned!

Upper SW Low Remains Stalled...

Yesterday I talked about an upper low over New Mexico that wasn't moving.  Today that low has moved to the SW into northern Mexico with an upper trough bypassing it to the north.  That means the upper low will become "cut off" from the main jet stream keeping a SW flow from Texas into the Tennessee Valley.  That will mean a cold front should struggle to get through us on Saturday.

Right now it appears we could get into slightly drier air on Saturday before the best rain chances arrive on Sunday when the upper low is expected to move across us.   Note, almost every day into next week will have some rain chances until a stronger cold front arrives late next week.

What we don't want is for the frontal boundary to stall over us giving the potential for heavier rainfall.  Right now, we don't expect that to happen.

Today's almost hot temperatures created a Lake Breeze effect over the South Shore.  You can see the "shadow effect" of Lake Pontchartrain across the North Shore with no clouds while a narrow band of cumulus developed where the lake breeze collided with the southerly winds moving out of the Gulf.   I do see one more significant cool front late next week before we jump into the increasing summer heat of mid to late May.  Get ready Gang.  It's coming.  Stay tuned!

Stalled Western Low Means Front A Slow Go...

The trough that brought some rain to the West Coast has moved into the Rockies and stalled over New Mexico.  That has resulted in a SW upper flow from Texas to the Great Lakes with little eastward movement until Friday.  Even then, a surface cold front is not likely to have enough upper support to push through us and bring back the drier, good feel air for the weekend.

Since most of the upper energy will stay to our north and west, the severe weather threat for us has diminished along with the risk for heavy rainfall.

The top graphic is today's severe weather risk with the next being valid for Thursday.  Note how the risk decreases.  Radar only shows some spotty storms and that will be where the rains will stay for tomorrow.

While we have only some puffy clouds, back in Texas are some tall clouds that create shadows (arrow) on satellite views.

The cold front will only stagger to the east tomorrow perhaps getting close enough by Friday PM to bring us some rain.  Note how chilly (50s-60s) it is behind the front with 70s & 80s over the SE.  Chicago was 82 yesterday but they're in the 40s today with the winds off chilly Lake Michigan.   Burrr!

Until this upper low moves, I have little confidence in this weekend's forecast.  Stay tuned!

Rainy Late Week, Weekend In Doubt

I mentioned yesterday about the upper pattern shift that has a large trough over the western states.   It has brought some much needed rain/snow to the Rockies and is beginning to fire off some big storms over the Central Plains.  Unfortunately, this trough will be a slow mover and it might take until Sunday before it's by us.

There is a surge of low level moisture (Dew Points above 70+) streaming ahead of this system and models are showing a large area will be under a severe threat for the next 2 days with rainfall amounts topping 3-5"

The first 3 graphics are from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) with the top valid for today, the next one is for Wednesday with the next being valid on Thursday.   Notice we are never in a severe threat.  The bottom graphic is total rainfall for the next 5 days with a large swath of 3-5"+ amounts.  

The battle ground is setting up across the Plains where warm air (Chicago is 80+) is surging to the north while cold air covers much of the West.

My concern is not for Wednesday or Thursdayduring the day here.  It's Thursday night into Friday into Sunday when we could get into a prolonged period of rain that lingers well behind the cold front.

Right now, FOX 8 is ending the rains on Friday, but I'm not totally sure since the upper trough remains to our west.   We'll look at it again tomorrow and hopefully the earlier drier weekend proves to be reality.  Stay tuned!