Front May Stall Bringing Heavy Rain Threat Into Weekend...

As we work our way towards May, cold fronts often lose their upper support/push and stall out along the northern Gulf coast.  I remember several April flood events caused when fronts became stationary.  There is a strong upper disturbance over the Rockies (see arrow on Water Vapor) that will move out into the Plains tomorrow and then to the eastern states on Thursday.  If it keeps moving by us, no problem.  But if it stalls out, then we need to pay attention into this weekend.  It doesn't look like there will be any severe storms according to SPC.  That slight risk is to the north of lake Pontchartrain.

The severe risk lessens for Friday, but notice the 7 day rainfall totals with widespread 4-5 inch amounts over a large area of LA/MS/AL.    I'm thinking that those numbers are overplayed, but I wanted to alert you to that possibility IF the front stalls.  We have a few showers around today mainly north & west of NOLA, a sign of things to come.

In the short term, the front is too far away to cause us any problems for Wednesday and we'll see a warm, more humid day tomorrow with only a stray shower.

80s are all the way up to Chicago and dew points have moved into the 60s around us.   Low level moisture will keep increasing as the front approaches early on Thursday. 

You can see the clouds surrounding the upper storm over the Rockies where it is snowing at higher elevations.   We'll know better tomorrow whether the upper system will provide the push necessary to get the cold front through us and not have it stall.  Finally, the NWS River Forecast Office has LOWERED the crest coming down the Mississippi.

Unless there are more heavy rains during the next 2-3 weeks farther north, all indications are there will be no need to open the Spillway this year, and that is good news.  Stay tuned!