Could Be A Trio Of Storms Named This Week...

Knowing how quickly NHC names storms now, I would not be surprised to see Tropical Storms Bill, Claudette and Danny named during the next 5 days.   NHC has highlighted 2 areas to watch with Bill most likely to be named as he races off the East Coast.

The wild card is the circle over Florida that shows some signs of spin this afternoon. Neither the first system (probably Bill) off the NC coast or the Florida system will be our problem.  However, the system in the extreme southern Gulf appears to be aimed towards the Louisiana Gulf coast for this weekend.

I highlighted where a low level circulation is showing up on this afternoon's satellite views and that pretty much is where the computer models initialize their center. You can see most keep whatever is trying to form down over the Bay of Campeche, but several are now bringing it northward towards us.  Below the Spaghetti models are the main hurricane models.  The 1st is the GFS followed by the Euro and then the Canadian.  All bring a tropical surge of moisture into LA/MS with the Canadian being the weakest as an open wave of tropical moisture.

Models are projecting 7 day rainfall totals of 5-10"+ over most of south LA/MS & AL.   If it's spread out over several days, that should not be a major problem.  If it falls all in one day, then flooding is likely with Sunday being the wettest day.

In the short term, we are seeing fewer showers around today as dew points are lower(drier air).

The surface weather map does have an inviting cold front heading through the Great Lakes on towards the East Coast.  That will never reach us.  We'll stay hot & humid and mostly dry until we get into the weekend.

Based on today's model guidance, Saturday and Sunday look to be rather rainy with some drying into early next week.   Worst case scenario is we'll see a Tropical Storm develop over the western Gulf and we'll be on the wet side.   The best scenario brings a tropical surge of rain, but no storm/winds with the heaviest rainfall staying to our east.   Since nothing has formed yet, we watch and wait.

In reading some of your comments from yesterday's post, I left out a real issue when you decide to stay or leave.  AGE.  IF you are younger with infants, do you want to take care of them in oppressive heat & humidity with no power (No AC).  I think not as you best leave.  What about seniors (70+)?  Depends on their health.  Better to leave and go visit your grandchild in Oklahoma for a couple of weeks than to endure hardships here.   The decision making process is often complicated and that is why I suggest you have a plan when the "big one" threatens.  I disagree with the comment "staying here seems the safest option".  Really?  I know several folks who chose that option before Katrina.  Sadly, they made the wrong choice and are no longer with us.   Re-read my last post and the 3 necessary things you must have with your house IF you decide to stay.   2 out of 3 will not work when the levees fail again.  Let's all be smart and learn from other's past mistakes.  Since I will be at the Hurricane Conference the next 2 days, my afternoon posts will be delayed until the evening.  Stay tuned!