Hurricane Decision Making, Stay Or leave...

We've been told for decades,..."Have a game plan, Prepare before the storm, Don't Wing it yada yada."  The National Hurricane Conference is in NOLA starting tomorrow and Emergency Managers/1st responders & local meteorologists will be meeting to discuss how to be prepared.   For me it's pretty simple.  If it's a Tropical Storm or weak hurricane, only those outside the levee protection need to leave.  The real decisions come when there's a Cat. 2 or stronger storm threatening us since we must remember the levees are only a "risk reduction" system and can be overtopped or breeched.  Here's my guidance.

I feel OK if you choose to stay provided you have the above.  1) Elevation or a two story house in case the levees fail. 2)  Fully functional shutters, Window protection to keep the wind out. And, either a portable generator or full house general in case power is out for days or weeks.   If you don't have all 3, then the decision is already made for you.  You must leave as you don't want to put 1st responder's lives at risk trying to rescue you and your family.   If you must leave, know where you are going (friend or relative far away from the water) and how you will get there.  There's a lot more work involved in staying (adequate food & water) than in leaving.  However,  Leaving is way more expensive and that often becomes a factor in decision making.  Bottom line, the discussion regarding what you'll do needs to be made way before a storm threatens.  

NHC has increased the area down over the Bay of Campeche to 50% probability for development later this week.  The area off the South Carolina coast is associated with a leftover frontal boundary and will race away from the U.S. 

Down over the Gulf, a large disorganized mass of clouds  is not called Invest 92.  The computer projection basically keep it down there for the next several days, however, the 7 day rainfall totals continue to hint that heavy rainfall will head northward for next weekend.

The main models continue to show a broad low will drift toward the northern Gulf late this week.

The top graphic is the GFS valid for Saturday PM with the middle being the Euro and the bottom being the Canadian.  Note the CMC is faster than the first two but all keep us on the wet side of whatever forms.  We will have all week to watch and get nervous, but for now the main issue is local T-Storms.

A severe T-Storm Watch is in effect for the North Shore in addition to coastal waters.  Look at how these storms have brought cooling relief to the Mississippi coast.

As the 7 day shows, little change until Friday into next weekend.   As I said yesterday, whatever forms will bring a heavy rain impact to many folks.  Too soon to lock in on a location.  Cerrtainly SW Louisiana (Lake Charles/ Lafayette) doesn't need another storm, and neither do we.    Stay tuned!