It still is difficult to find a well defined center. However, can you see how the T-Storms that were way away from the system yesterday have exploded much closer to where a center might be trying to form? I've placed a low where I think the center might be, but it still appears to be more of an inverted trough of low pressure. What tells me NHC will name this system soon besides saying that's what their forecast says? Look at the wave heights.
On last night's post, they were 2-3 feet. Now they are up to 4-7'. That doesn't happen without an increase in winds offshore. Our surface winds are trying to shift to the ESE, but without a well defined center, the track is less meaningful.
There has been a subtle shift to the east in the NHC centerline track moving from over Morgan City yesterday to closer to Houma today. That subtle shift results in a lowering of the potential rainfall forecast from the local office of NWS.
Yesterday they had metro NOLA in the 6-8" amounts while today it's down to 4-6". Note the Mississippi coats still is expecting 5-10" , which is where the brunt of this system is going. NHC also extended the Tropical Storm warnings farther to the east over to include the Florida beaches.
To me that confirms the thinking that SE LA. will just be grazed by this system with the heaviest rainfall later this afternoon and overnight. Saturday the worst will already be leaving so this weekend will not be a total washout.
Fortunately PC # 3 is moving quickly and that's another reason our rainfall will not be extreme. So get what you need to do this morning and early afternoon before the heavier rains arrive after 3 PM. I'll post later this afternoon. Stay tuned!
2 comments:
Thanks so much, Bob. I can always rely on you to be on point with your forecast.
Thank you Breck, my husband will now be able to see his grandmother for Father's Day:-)
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