Fred Makes Land, But Far From Dead

At 2:15 PM. Tropical Storm Fred's center reached the NW Florida coast near Port St. Joe with the worst impacts from Panama City eastward towards the Big Bend.  Even though his wind speeds will decrease during the next couple of days, there will be a heavy rain threat up the east coast.

NHC's final forecast take takes Fred across the South and heads it towards the Northeast.  2-6" of rain are possible around the track.

Many posts back, I mentioned the possibility of 3-4 named storms in August since the MJO was going into the favorable (rising air) phase.  That might turn out to be too conservative as Tropical Storm Henri formed near Bermuda.  But first let's deal with Grace.

Grace remain a depression but is likely to become a Tropical Storm shortly since much of her circulation is avoiding the tall mountains of Hispaniola.  In fact, NHC now believes Grace will become a Hurricane over the western Gulf.   Typically storms make a turn to the north around the Bermuda high. That won't happen with Grace.

Shelby Latino used these maps on FOX 8 this morning showing why Grace can;t make the turn.  As Fred lifts to the north tonight, the Atlantic Ridge will build in behind him from the east.  In addition, models forecast a strong blocking upper high will park itself right over us.  Grace will not come to Louisiana and will be a Texas or Mexico storm.

Finally, Henri will head towards the U.S. but will turn away long before having any impacts on the East coast.   Our problem will come from that building upper high that will mean some of the hottest temperatures of this Summer will be here later this week.

In the short term, look for shower chances to be below normal for most of this week.  there are no fronts coming so be ready for those Dog Days (perhaps weeks) of August arrive.

I'll return to a daily post tomorrow since there will be no Tropical threats to the northern Gulf for a while.  Stay tuned!