Tick, Tick, Tick, When Will The Action begin?

As several of you have commented, there are many factors changing that will allow tropical activity to ramp up shortly.  The MJO is going towards the favorable (rising air) phase and the SAL (Saharan Air layer) is weakening.  NHC now is giving  a wave moving off the African coast a 70% chance of developing during the next 5 days.

I must admit satellite views are not very impressive with just large areas of disorganized showers & storms.  The wave out ahead of it approaching the islands has even lower (40%) chances for development.  So in the short term (5-7days), we have northing to worry about.

The Gulf and Caribbean are mostly quiet with an upper low drifting westward south of Cuba and an old frontal boundary stretched across the northern Gulf.  I've drawn in our next upper trough that should pass well to our north late Friday into Saturday.  That will increase our shower chances back to near normal for this weekend.

The cold front did push into the northern Gulf, but it's hard to find just looking at temperatures.. Chicago is 85 while we are 86.  However,  look at the dew points that have dipped into the 50s at MSY.  Sure it's still hot, but it's not brutal heat.

We have no rain around but winds are still mainly northerly.  Highs might touch 90 but we still feel pretty good.

Friday looks mostly dry with some isolated showers to our south.  Saturday into next week should be back to basic August summertime...hot, humid with spotty daytime heating storms.   Finally, thank you to all who understand the value of getting vaccinated.  I remember an episode of Bosch where the bad guy had a revolver with one bullet in the six shooter chamber.  He pointed it at Bosch's head and fired.  It didn't have the bullet.  That's what I feel those who choose not to get vaccinated are doing.  Please don't take that chance.  Get the shots.   Avoid the bullet (COVID 19).    Stay tuned!