Another Gulf Disturbance Coming?

As many of you know, NHC has increased the possibility for tropical development in the western Gulf from 70% to 80%, meaning it's gonna happen.  They are basing that on computer model runs that have been consistently showing development.  Let me point out, there is NOTHING there yet.  Here's what we do know.

Louisiana is enjoying the dry, slightly cooler air north of a dissipating frontal boundary in the Gulf, (top photo)    There is a large upper high over Oklahoma that will move to our north and east during the next 3 days.  I've placed an L where I think there's a small swirl over the Yucatan this morning.  NHC has designated this Invest 94 L allowing for some early model runs.

RIGHT NOW, the models suggest the target for heaviest rains will be the upper Texas and SW LA coastal locations with the potential for 10-15"+ rainfall amounts.  Obviously, we don't want that to come here.  These are the over night model runs.

The top is the Euro that is more bullish on forming a Tropical Storm moving inland near Corpus late Monday into Tuesday.  The bottom graphic is the total rainfall with the bullseye heading towards Galveston/Houston.   That would be better for us.  However,

The GFS model is way less aggressive at developing a storm, keeping 94 L an open wave but spreading more of the heavier rainfall farther east into Louisiana.  Which will be correct?   Maybe neither and 94 L heads into Mexico south of Brownsville.   Until a real center is located, it's way too early to speculate.  Whatever does happen, it's clear our rain chances will return by late Sunday into next week.  Repairmen need many more days/weeks of dry weather, but that's not going to happen.  Finally,

I've shown you pictures of the large tree next to my He=Shed that Ida crashed down on my back fence.  I'm happy to report that Clarence, my crown of thorns, was battered but not killed by the storm.

These are before (top) and after views.  Note the top photo has the height way above the mid window line (5+;).  I had to cut off the top portions as Clarence had become top heavy and Ida just bent over the higher parts.  Doesn't look pretty yet, but give the old guy some time and he'll be blooming again by October.   I'll post again this afternoon.  Stay tuned!