Nicholas Reaches Hurricane Force As He Hugs Texas Coast...

Based on Recon data that saw significant pressure drops and buoy reports gusting to 80+ mph, NHC has upgraded Nicholas to this season's    Hurricane.  Satellite views are not impressive, but there are several bursts of bright (colder) cloud tops around what appear to be multiple centers.  Some of those swirls are probably mid level around the storm and it's the Recon data that pinpoints the real center.

The radar presentation remains lop sided with the heaviest to the north and east with very little to the south and west.  David has a slew of great graphics on FOX 8 at 9 PM.  The ones that are concerning are the model wind gusts that keep the center of Nicholas offshore from the Texas coast making landfall in Louisiana around Lake Charles.

IF that track proves correct, it will bring tropical storm wind gusts into the metro area on Wednesday challenging our power grids once again.  OK the new track is in and it is not good for south Louisiana.

NHC continues to insist that the eye of Nicholas will make landfall in Texas, but what if it doesn't like David showed?  That would mean stronger wind gusts are coming our way.  The other change is NHC almost stalls Nicholas as a depression over SW Louisiana keeping us on the wet side.  Here's there newest center line track that stalls/slows down NW of Lafayette.

If David's model is correct and Nicholas stays farther to the east, look for that map of tropical storm force winds to shift towards us tomorrow.  They haven't increased their rainfall predictions, but if it slows as they indicate, these totals may be too low.

There is dry air wrapping around the western and southern sides, but the wet side is producing drenching tropical squalls.

So our main concern will be the heavy rain threat that David showed will be greatest on Wednesday.

You can see the heaviest( 10-20") is to our west, but we have some 8-10" over the eastern end of Lake Pontchartrain.   Nicholas will not be Ida, but he will cause us addition troubles on top of what we're dealing with now.  Stay tuned!