Here We Go Again, Predawn Severe Threat Coming...

With this fast moving upper air pattern, it's fairly easy to time when we'll see another round of rain/storms.   The timing has been every 3-4 days between episodes and , since our last threat was early Tuesday, it's easy to predict another episode tomorrow with yet another coming next Tuesday.

SPC is already alerting local NWS offices regarding tomorrow morning's threat that could even get worse as deeper Gulf moisture spreads northward on Saturday.

The top graphic is valid overnight with a level 2 (slight) risk for both sides of the Lake including the Mississippi coast. The bottom pic is valid for Friday into Saturday.  Note the level 3 (enhanced) risk for the Mississippi coast eastward from Biloxi into the Florida beaches.

Note dew points (bottom graphic) at Corpus Christi are approaching 70 degrees.   We'll be in that neighborhood tomorrow morning, hence the severe threat as the upper energy interacts with the low level warmth & moisture.  I grabbed these graphics from David's 4 PM program detailing the timing of tomorrow's storms. 

They clearly show the heavier, stronger storms should be north of Lake P.  In fact, at 7 AM there is a definite "bow echo" across central Mississippi racing into north Alabama.  

So once this upper disturbance passes to our north, tomorrow will see clearing skies with warmer PM temps approaching 80 before slightly cooler air flows in for Saturday.  It won't linger as we warm up next week ahead of Tuesday's front.

SPC is already highlighting a possible severe area to our west.

You can see the increasing cloud cover in Texas where a few light showers have developed.  No rain is expected here until well after midnight and towards Friday's dawn.   Our brisk SSE winds could gust to 40+ as a line of storms passes through.  Hopefully, you have the FOX 8 weather app on your phone so it can wake up up later tonight if a tornado warning is issued.   From the graphics, the higher risks appear to be north of the Lake and to our east.  Pay attention to David's 10 pm program for any updates and that the "Luck of Da Irish" protects us!   Stay tuned!