Here We Go Again, Another Southern Severe Event...

We often see that weather goes in cycles and the past several weeks have confirmed.  We begin another week with the third straight possibility for severe storms across the South.  SPC has elevated their severe risk from level 2 to 3 for Monday night into Tuesday.

The level 3 risk (enhanced) appears to stay just north of Lake P.   The trigger is another upper disturbance near Las Vegas that will race eastward by Wednesday.   To me, this does not look as potent as the last two.

Computer models pretty much show that as the upper trough (arrow) on the top graphic from this morning moves east.  The second view is valid for Tuesday Morning with the next valid for Wednesday morning.  What is far more potent is the huge upper low that dives out of Canada down over the Great Lakes.  The bottom view is valid late Thursday.  If we were back in January, this set up would surely bring us a freeze potential.  We'll still be quite chilly for early April, but we'll stay well above frost & freeze levels, unless you're way north in interior Mississippi.

There's still plenty of cold air across northern Canada and the Great Lakes & Northeast could see some snow showers.

The frontal boundary down over the Gulf will work northward ahead of Tuesday's storms.  Monday will be dry with the storms reaching us near dawn or shortly after on Tuesday.  Since it will be a fast mover, flooding rainfall in not likely.  However, we'll have to stay alert for damaging winds as a squall line surges through.

Note how chilly it gets Thursday through Sunday with highs well below normal/average. You'll need sweaters and jackets, especially at night.

What a wonderful Sunday with warm temps, all day sunshine and low humidity.  Monday still looks nice before Tuesday starts stormy.  Stay tuned!