Models Muffed Monday, Rain Chances Remain All Week...

I watched several stations last night & this morning and did not get the "perception" that today would be 1) as cloudy and 2) as rainy.   OK we didn't get huge amounts, but it has not been a pretty day with even some claps of thunder.

I wish I could point out some features that are causing today's unexpected widespread showers, but I can't.   All of the active cloud swirls (Lows) are up north and along the West coast.  That SW upper flow over us will keep lingering daily rain chances all week.  SPC is predicting widespread severe storms for the next few days.

Today the greatest threat (level 3) is centered on Arkansas where storms are just starting to fire up.   The risk area is expanded greatly for the next two days.

Our severe risk on Tuesday is low, but it is not zero.  Look how that area is moved eastward on Wednesday (bottom 2 graphics).   The level 3 (enhanced) risk spreads across north & central LA/MS on Wednesday.  If you look at the upper air forecast, the main energy remains far away from us (arrows)

The top graphic is from this morning with the rest valid for Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday mornings.   Our tornado "season" typically is late February into late April as the greatest threat shifts back into the Plains.

The bullseye is centered over Oklahoma extending eastward across Arkansas, Mississippi into Alabama.   That is based on the 30 year period from 1982 through 2011.  The most recent decade has hinted that frequency of risk has shifted eastward.

So as surface high pressure shifts off the East Coast, low level gulf moisture is streaming northward.  The main storms are over the Pacific NW with lots of snow at higher elevations.  Temperatures are quite chilly requiring jackets & coats.

You can see the higher dew points with 60s surging into Arkansas.  With the SW upper flow expected to stay around all week, rain chances will linger, but it doesn't mean it'll rain all day.

Since my garden is fully planted, getting some rain this week will be good.  There will be many dry hours, but keep the rain gear handy.   Stay tuned!