Severe Risk, Flood Threat Mainly North Of Lake Pontchartrain...

Many of you know some of our worst Spring floods happened when a cold front stalled out along the Gulf coast. We do have a front coming that will lose it's push to the south as it moves to the east.  It appears to me that models slow the rain band along the front, but not stalling it out over us moving it down off the coast by daybreak on Thursday..  Our local NWS (National Weather Service) office has all of SE LA. under a Flood Watch through tomorrow morning.  Here's the timing taken off Bruce Katz's 4 PM program.

So most of us will see 2-3 hours of heavy rainfall with amounts 2-4" widespread and 6"+ in spots.  What is encouraging is the rain potential model does not shift the heaviest rains over New Orleans, where we still have issues with pumping capacity & power dependability.

From the above graphics, the heaviest totals will be over the North Shore & along the Mississippi Gulf Coast.  So what is causing this severe/flood threat?

I've drawn in the upper jet steam (blue) along with the sub-tropical southern stream (orange).  The greatest threats often occur where those stream split (red circle) and that where SPC has their highest risk (levels 3-4).  That's also where they have issued Tornado Watches.   If they are correct, most (if not all) the severe storms stay from McComb northward and eastward.

Radar also is indicating lots of lightning accompanies the bands of T-Storms.  This is an evening and night where you want your phone with the FOX 8 weather app near you in case warnings are issued.

Temperatures behind this front are quite chilly, but the core of the cold will stay well to our north.

Hopefully, if the front keeps moving, we'll see those low dew points (drier air) like in the 30s at San Antonio & Dallas.   The front will stall over the northern Gulf and return northward on Friday so the cool down will be brief.

The Crescent City Classic Saturday morning will be warm & muggy with a slight chance for a stray shower. Same story for early morning sunrise services on Easter Sunday.   

The big issue tonight will be the brisk southerly winds (20-30, gusts to 40+)ahead of the front.  Stay weather alert, know where to go if warnings are issued.  That might not happen until after you go to bed.  Stay safe & stay tuned!