Agatha Is No More But Alex Likely by This Weekend...

The remains of Agatha have now moved into the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, but she has lost all of her T-Storms.    What is evident on satellite loops is another circulation that appears to be forming on the Caribbean side of the Yucatan.  None of the noon time weather programs mentioned it , but finally David did on his 5 PM program.   If NHC doesn't spoon feed most broadcasters, then they won't say anything on their own.  Thank you David!

NHC is now giving a 70% probability for development in the red hatched area.   The Euro continues to be the only model that develops a Tropical Storm (Alex) or a Hurricane while the GFS does not.

The spaghetti models all focus on central Florida with the 3 graphics that follow being the European model.  It closes off a weak low west of Ft. Myers and really explodes the system east of Florida over the Gulf Stream.  The bottom graphic is the GFS at the same time frame and it has nothing.  This will be a real test of the two major models.  The good news is whatever forms or doesn't will not be our problem.

There remains a large trough over the western & central U.S. with a ridge covering the east.  That's keeping the west chilly while the eastern half is summer-like.   Note the 97 at NYC.

The battle ground for storms will be along the frontal boundary for the rest of this week.

Locally, we have seen some daytime heating storms bubble up and that has brought our temps down below 90.   

Once we see temps top 90+, you cannot rule out a pop up Storm.  The reason we have no rain in the weekend forecast is the expectation that some type of storm will form to our east placing us on the drier side.  I missed the rain today so I watered my potted plants.  Meteorological Summer and the 2022 Hurricane season begins tomorrow.   Stay tuned!