Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season About To Begin?

Currently we have zero tropical activity anywhere around the globe.  However that may change during the next couple of days as models develop an Eastern Pacific named storm (Agatha) and move in northward into Mexico.  NHC is giving 2 areas a chance for development with the eastern system the higher chance (80%).

Here's where things get interesting.  The Euro model brings the energy from Agatha northward into the Gulf late next week and tries to reform a storm by next Saturday.   But look at the GFS at the same time frame.  It has nothing.

We have seen the GFS model overhype  a storm in the 10-14 day time frame.  This time it's the Euro.  Let's not get too excited about development based on a long range model.   All the experts are chomping at the bit to get this season started since they all are predicting an active season.  I am not in that camp.   Our weather in the short term is being controlled by an unusually deep upper disturbance in Oklahoma.

The southern end is producing heavy rainfall plus some severe storms.  SPC did increase their severe risk to level 2.

Widespread 1-2" amounts have fallen on both sides of Lake P. with another round or 2 possible before the upper Oklahoma system moves to our NE.

The top graphic is the current surface map with the next 4 the upper winds valid for today, Thursday, Friday & Saturday.  Note as the upper low passes to our NE, the current SW moist flow will shift to the west and then north bring drier air for us late Thursday through the weekend.

The 50 degree dew points at San Antonio & Dallas will spread our way making it feel much nicer, especially at night by Friday AM.

This was much needed rainfall as our lawns and gardens soak up the moisture.  This late May front will really make for a nice holiday weekend.  Get ready to be outdoors.  Stay tuned!