Bonnie & Colin Coming, But Where?

This is a special mid-day update based on what I'm seeing on satellite and radar views.  NHC has highlighted an area for development over the NW Gulf for later this week giving it a slight (20%) chance to form.  I believe on their 2 PM update they will increase that to 40 or 50% and here's why.

The swirl I'm seeing is farther to the west than the NHC "X", more likely south of Lake Charles where there are numerous lightning strikes.

If you just go by the surface winds, low pressure would still be east of the mouth of the river.   The weak rotation that is apparel on radar and satellite views might be in the mid levels (10,000').  But the real reason NHC will increase probabilities is the model forecasts.

The Euro model has a closed low off of Corpus Christi by Wednesday and the heavy rain forecast aims towards the Texas coast.   Whatever forms or doesn't, it will have minimal wind & wave impacts on LA/MS.  What it could do is give us some welcomed heavy downpours this week keeping us less hot.  I'll have another update after 4 PM talking about the system out in the Atlantic. Stay tuned!