Bonnie Coming To Southern Caribbean, Colin Will Have To Wait...

NHC began issuing advisories for PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone ) # 2 at 4 PM since the disturbance out in the Atlantic is getting within 48 hours of affecting land areas.  It doesn't look very impressive on satellite views, but models develop it in 2-3 days over the extreme southern Caribbean.   Fair to say, the Tropical Atlantic has come alive several weeks earlier than normal".

The NHC discussion brings PTC # 2 to Tropical Storm Bonnie by tomorrow afternoon and to Cat. 1 hurricane strength before reaching Nicaragua by Saturday.   This system will not make a turn to the north and enter the Gulf.  However, there is another system behind it.

NHC indicates that system might go on a track farther to the north.   Most models do NOT develop it.  Closer to home...

The cluster of storms off our coast is showing no signs of organization.  In fact, you can see an outflow boundary moving AWAY from the cluster.  If storms were organizing, you would see inflow towards a center.  It's a complex situation as a frontal boundary has sagged just to our north and that might spin up an area of low pressure later this week.  NHC did NOT increase their probabilities on their afternoon update.

A cold front has about stalled over south Louisiana and that should help keep clouds and showers above average/normal for much of this week.  Notice how the heat wave over the U.S, last week is gone.

In fact, look at dew points in the 40s & 50s to our north.  That is really good feeling air, but it's not coming here.

Later this week, as our shower chances go back down, temperatures will get back into the 90s which is where they should be for late June/July.   In the short term...

If you're lucky enough to get under a storm, rainfall amounts can be 1-2' in less than an hour. After being 85-100 all of last week, most of us welcome the less hot weather even if it means we have to deal with some rain.  Stay tuned!