Lots Of Tropical Activity, But No Real Action...

I know all the hurricane "experts" have been calling for another way above normal/average season, and it very well may end up that way.  But there has been something strange happening that has not allowed storms to really develop.  The MJO is favorable (rising air), water temps very warm & wind shear very low.  However, all the systems we're watching are struggling to develop.

Case in point, Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) # 2 has been unable to form a closed low level circulation as it rapidly approaches Trinidad.   One reason might be its forward speed (24 mph).  NHC still believes this system will become our first Hurricane somewhere over the extreme southern Gulf before plowing into Nicaragua.   There is a second system behind PTC # 2, but it too is struggling.

Add in the area over the NW Gulf and it just seems something is at work hindering development.  I'm not complaining about that and hope it continues.

I can find at least 3 small swirls on satellite views with the color enhanced not showing any strong clusters around these swirls.  Computer models all steer whatever forms into Texas over the weekend.

The stalled frontal boundary will remain close enough for the next several days to keep us from going back into a heat wave like last week.

You can't see much of a cool down behind the front.  However, look how much lower the dew points are.  DPs in the 50s mean much drier air, but it's not coming here.

The next 3 days should see higher rain chances and that could keep highs below 90.  Today's storms have been very spotty, but some are strong with lots of lightning & heavy rainfall.

Finally, last week's heat dome really diminished the flow into the lower Mississippi.

The river height at the Carrollton gauge has fallen 3-4 feet in the past 3 weeks.  It will be below 5 feet during the next 10 days.  That is important as we get closer to the heart of the hurricane season.  A strong hurricane can back up the river increasing heights 7-10 feet or more.    A lower river means we have more leeward as the levees protect us up to 20 feet.  Let's see if any of the tropical disturbances form into a named storm.   If not, all of the "experts" may have to rethink their high numbers for this season?  It's still early.  Stay tuned!