Recon Planes Find Nada, Still No Bonnie Or Colin...

As I mentioned yesterday, it appears there is something hindering tropical development both in the Caribbean & over the Gulf.  Let's begin with the Gulf system first.  There appears to be a low level rotation, but there are no storms around it.  NHC still believes there is some potential for a tropical depression to form before this disturbance moves inland over Texas with some heavy (3-5"+) rainfall tomorrow & Friday.

PTC # 2 has not gotten better organized as it races to the west across the extreme southern Caribbean. .   NHC still believes this system will be named before it reaches Nicaragua and then crosses into the Pacific.

And even farther out into the Atlantic, another disturbance has not developed.

Models are not doing much with this system so, even though we have lots to watch, not much is happening.   Oh, I forgot to mention there is a weak rotation on radar east of Florida with an upper low just south of the peninsula.

So all you tropical geeks, what's going on that nothing is developing?  Something is at work here.  All the ingredients appear favorable, but the "cake" is not rising.

A surface frontal boundary remains stalled just to our NW.  Look at how close the lower dew points are.  We're in the soupy air and will stay that way through September!

This afternoon's spotty storms didn't arrive soon enough to keep us below 90, but it has cooled us down now.

With that surface boundary nearby, look for above normal/average shower chances into the weekend.   Waiting for Bonnie?   She's coming by Friday down in the Caribbean.  Stay tuned!