Northern Gulf Going To Get Wet, Hostile Tropical Environment...

Yesterday NHC hatched out an area across the northern Gulf giving it a slight (20%) chance for development.  Today they have increased that number up slightly to 30 %.  NOTHING is there yet as all the tropical action remains in the eastern Pacific.

There are clusters of disorganized T-Storms over the Gulf and that is where NHC believes something might develop.

the top view is from the NHC web site while the bottom is a prettier version grabbed from Bay8News out of Tampa Bay.   Here's why I believe it is UNLIKELY (Not Impossible) that something will develop.

Look at the top view that shows the frontal boundary to our north.  My experience tells me fronts have to dip into the Gulf to have any spin off to develop.  So watch to see if this boundary sinks farther to the south. In addition, there is a well defined upper low over the Yucatan Channel that is creating strong NE wind shear over the Gulf.  Add on some very dry air flowing into LA/MS from the north and it adds up to a hostile environment for tropical systems.   What could favor development?

Look at the Gulf water temps.  There are way warmer than down over the Caribbean.  There is plenty of fuel to allow a storm to develop.  RIGHT NOW, upper wind shear is our friend.

Computer models are forecasting heavy rainfall amounts for later this week.  Coastal areas could see 8-10"+ and that could result in street flooding.   Since it's mid July, I'm not too concerned for any rapid developing tropical system based on the factors that should limit development.   Certainly something to watch.

We remain ( and will be till September!) in a very tropical air mass where any storms that do bubble up are efficient rain producers.   Mid 90 temps coupled with mid 70s dew points result in brutal heat indexes.  Common sense is required if working or playing outdoors.

Today's forecast called for 90% rain chances.  WRONG!!!  Coverage was more like 20-30%.  Note the 90% coverage was from the beaches eastward.   If you didn't see any rain,  you were smoking hot.

That should change later this week as clouds and showers increase.  Really frustrated watching local weathercasters who 1) don't point out why yesterday's forecast wasn't correct, plus 2) don't give us what their opinion is regarding the tropics.  They just repeat the NHC outlook/discussion.   It use to be, well what does Nash say?  or what does Bob say?   Now they're all the same.  Sad.  So why do you watch who you watch?   It use to be because of TRUST,   Stay tuned!