Northern Gulf Remains The Focus, But Nothing Developing...

The wide picture of the Tropics, both Atlantic & Eastern Pacific, doesn't show much.  There are two main reasons for the Atlantic Basin being quiet..  1) A surge of Saharan dust covers has surged into the Caribbean and 2) upper level lows dominate.  This should make it difficult for any tropical development, especially since the MJO is in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase.

NHC still has a hatched area over the northern Gulf for possible development, but they LOWERED their probability from 30% to 20%.

There is a broad weak low level circulation hugging the coast line along the Florida beaches.  A surge of tropical moisture is racing towards the Texas coast with an upper low sitting over the SE Gulf.  Satellite views again capture lots fo showers/storms, but nothing is organized as the color infrared view (bottom) shows.

So the question is..."will the weak Florida circulation drift westward towards us?"  Or will it lift northward away from us.  I grabbed the rainfall potential map from Bruce and that shows much lower amounts from yesterday's predictions.   It's something we'll watch, but right now is not a major concern besides some brief street flooding like today.

Cloud cover and showers sure make a difference in our temperatures.

The first front this week has dissipated before reaching us with another front sagging across Arkansas & Tennessee.  That front will also stall to our north.  Don't expect any major changes coming this week until we can get this tropical disturbance over the Gulf to move away.

Finally, Texas has been smoking hot with Dallas & Houston being 100+ for days.

Grabbed these graphics off The Weather Channel that shows today is day # 10 in a row for Dallas being 100+.  Before you AGW Alarmists start shouting global warming, look at the summer of 1980, 42 years ago.  Yep, Dallas had 42 straight days of 100 +.   Also compared to the hottest summer ever there (2011), they are nowhere close to breaking records.  Stay tuned!