Tropics Staying Quiet, Focus Is On Heat Dome...

We are approaching the "prime time" of hurricane season (August & September) and all the experts keep saying the switch will go to "on" in another 2-3 weeks.  There is no dimmer switch, just an on & off.  Typically it can be traced to the favorable (rising air) phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation).  It has been in the unfavorable phase (sinking air) for many weeks.  Coupled with the Saharan dust later & the Atlantic basin has been dead since Bonnie.  Remember, Bonnie didn't make a hurricane until; she reached the Eastern Pacific.

No model has anything developing ,except in the EastPac, during the next 10-14 days.  The main weather news globally has been the extreme heat in Europe.  London hit 104 degrees with Paris 102.

The reason for the heat is the same as what is happening here over the central Plains.   Notice the large area from Spain to Poland that has no clouds.  There is a cold front moving across Ireland that will bring relief to the United Kingdom tomorrow.   Highs should be 20-25 degrees cooler.   The heat dome over the Plains isn't as widespread.

Hey, 109 in Dallas & Oklahoma City is pretty extreme, but I expect the core of that heat dome will shift eastward and stay just to our north.   That should allow some daytime heating storms to bring us some cooling relief.

Storms have formed along an upper boundary that extends from Georgia back over Louisiana.  The better rain chances for the next 2-3 days will be south of Lake P.  

Most of the rain this afternoon has been out over the Lake offering little cooling relief to land stations.

If you plan to work or play outdoors during the next couple of weeks, use common sense.  1) wear a hat.  2) use sunscreen and 3) stay hydrated.  Finally.

If you want the opportunity to win a 19 foot bay boat, register for the International Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo.  Registration cost is $45 and send your check to the International Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo.  P.O. Box 25, Des Allemands, LA. 70030.  The Rodeo begins at dawn on July 28th and ends at 6 PM on July 30th. You can register on the Island during the Rodeo, but the cost goes up to $50.  I'll again be the MC for the awards ceremony at 8:30 PM under the Rodeo Pavilion Saturday night.  Hope to see you there.  Stay tuned!