World Wide Tropical Activity Still Sleeping, Focus Shifts To Past Years...

Yesterday I mentioned Jim Cantore trying to connect present trends with past history.  Today Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell Analytics has come out with his new tropical update and where he believes the most activity will be.  But before I get to that, let me begin by showing once again the lack of ANY hurricanes globally, except  a dying Tropical Storm Howard in the eastern Pacific.

The central & western Pacific plus the Indian Ocean have zero named storms.  This lack of activity tells me something odd is happening this hurricane season.

The system (97 L) out in the Atlantic appears to be smothered by Saharan dust, though it might briefly be named later this week.  Models keep it far out to sea never threatening the U.S.  The Caribbean is quiet while the Gulf has clusters of disorganized storms.

I've tried to point out the weak boundaries that show up on satellite loops.  Typically these clusters of storms over the Gulf would have me looking for tropical development, but I can find none.   We'll have to watch the weak boundary sagging down from the north to see how  mg interact with the boundary over the Gulf.  No model has any development for the next 7-10 days.

And that is why WeatherBell Analytics has joined the others in lowering their total number of storms from 18-22 down to 14-18.  More importantly regarding location, they believe the greatest threat shifts to the East coast from Florida to Maine with the northern Gulf UNLIKELY to see a repeat of the last few years.  In fact, they believe  this year might be more like the years 1954 & '96.

The top map is 1954 with the bottom 1996,  Both years saw lots of storms but all avoided us!  Hate to see anyone deal with a bad hurricane, but to be fair, we need to share the misery and give us more time to recover.  The season will turn on eventually, but right now the switch is still OFF!  Stay tuned!