Tropical Storm Bret Forms, No Threat Yet.

NHC has upgraded T.D. 3 to Tropical Storm Bret on their 4 PM Advisory.  The upgrade is based on satellite loops/presentation since the storm is so far out in the Atlantic, it remains beyond the range of the Hurricane Recon aircraft.  There is a definite swirl in both the vis & color IR loops and it appears Bret is becoming better organized.

T.S. Bret is the red circle with another system less organized behind it to the east.  The white arrow points out the center on the color view with banding both north & south of that center.  Here's where NHC believes Bret's future path is going.

They believe it will reach the islands as a Cat. 1 Hurricane on Friday heading south of Puerto Rico towards the Dominican Republic/Haiti late Saturday.  What you should notice is NHC WEAKENS Bret back to a Tropical Storm as it moves farther westward.  With a deep upper trough predicted to park itself over the S.E., wind shear will likely weaken Bret further as he gets closer to the U.S.  Our concern should not be with Bret, but with that upper system that is causing flooding rains not that far to our east.

The extreme heat dome is expanding northward as the upper low in Kentucky slowly sinks to the south.

What we need to pay attention to are two boundaries that I hatched in (Yellow dashed lines) on the vis view.  From Bay St. Louis over to the Florida beaches, it's been an awful day.  Some rain totals are approaching 10" along with reports of water spouts.   Those boundaries might fire off farther to the west this evening or certainly during the day on Tuesday & Wednesday.  Get ready from drought-like to street flooding during the next several days.

The higher rain chances should mean less hot temps beginning tomorrow.  MSY reached at least 96 today.  Yikes! And astronomical summer doesn't begin until Wednesday!  Stay tuned!