Tropical Storm Bret Struggles While Local Storms Rumble

Even though Satellite views show a burst of T-Storms around the center of Bret this afternoon, NHC has lowered their intensity forecast no longer indicating Bret will become a hurricane.  Better still, all computer models are forecasting Bret to weaken & dissipate once into the central & western Caribbean where winds shear increases.  Behind Bret is another swirl that could become a depression, but models also don't do much with that system

Closer to home, there is a small cluster of clouds over the Caribbean, but the big story is a slow moving upper low is sinking slowly to the south over Tennessee,  With the upper high still lingering back over Mexico & south Texas, there is a split in the upper flow right over SE LA/MS.  That creates rising air motion (green circle) enhancing T-Storm activity over the same tracks.  The result being some areas are getting exceptional rain totals.

The surface map has a weak frontal boundary right along where the storm action is firing off.  Since the upper low is slowly moving, expect more of the same on Wednesday through Friday.

Note the black dashed line rotating around the surface low north of Atlanta.  Those are spokes of energy that enhance storm development.  The closer the low (both surface & aloft) moves to us, the greater our rain chances.  Note the frontal boundary draped across Louisiana.  It's hard to find it on temperatures, but dew points are in the high 60s north of the boundary while they're 75-80 south.

Today's heaviest rainfall has been south of the city on the West bank and earlier along the Mississippi Gulf coast.  Look at how less hot it is due to the clouds & storms.

The next 3 days should see some daily mainly PM T-Storm activity resulting in highs staying in the lower 90s at best.  However, models are hinting that the upper high will build back over us for next week with highs back into the middle & upper 90s.  Yikes!  I promised not to whine about the heat so I won't.  Stay tuned!