Franklin,Gert Coming to The Gulf? Special Midday Update

This morning, NHC named the season's 5th storm (Emily) way, way out in the Atlantic.  Before the modern satellite era, it probably would not be named since it is so far out.  it will stay out to sea and never affect the U.S.  But, closer to home we have, what appears to me, a developing swirl down over the Southeast Gulf.  NHC has the area highlighted, but they have not scheduled a recon plane to investigate it.  Humm?

Several posts ago, I mentioned how. after going zero for August, we could be tracking 3-4 named storms at once.   The system down over the Caribbean appears to be getting better organized and will probably be named Franklin later today.   But, as always, we focus on the Gulf.

Satellite loops indicate some kind of mid level swirl/rotation starting to form & the IR color view clearly has increasing T-Storms.  The reason for this post is to reassure you the northern Gulf has nothing to worry about even if Franklin/Gert forms today or tomorrow.  Computer models are NOT bullish on development despite the system moving over the Gulf loop current tomorrow.  

The top view is the oceanic heat content (warmest deep waters) while the bottom view is the GFS for Monday taking a weak system into south Texas.  So our thinking hasn't changed any as that lingering upper heat dome is blocking/protecting us for the next 7-10 days.  Will update after 4 M.