Friday, August 18, 2023

When In Drought, Leave It out...

What a Summer it has been as our daily, cooling PM T-Showers have been almost non-existent.  An upper heat dome developed in June and has lingered through a record hot July into late August.  That Heat Dome is not leaving anytime soon and it should block any moisture from a Gulf Tropical Wave moving westward over the Gulf for early next week.  As I've mentioned in the past, my colleague Jeff Baskin  coined the line, "when in drought leave it (rain) out."  Experience has taught me that is a good rule of thumb to follow.




All local weathercasters have been showing you the computer models that brush us with some moisture on Monday.  I'm not buying it since the Heat Dome seems to keep lingering beyond what models forecast. 




So if you want to be optimistic, believe the wave will bring (at least the South Shore) us some spotty showers & less hot temps.   As I said yesterday, the 40% rain chance on Monday appears generous to me.  Bottom line, the brutal heat goes on into next week.




NHC is following other areas out in the Tropics, but IF something does develop, the models turn them northward away from the U.S. The other big story is Hurricane Hilary heading towards Southern California (where the Saints are playing Sunday night)in the Eastern Pacific.




Hilary was a powerful Cat. 4 earlier, but she is weakening now as she moves into the colder California current along the West Coast.  Her main threat for CA./AZ./NV is heavy tropical rainfall causing flash flooding.  It never rains in California in August.





The rainfall prediction is calling for widespread 1-2" with 3-5" possible in the mountains.  The last time southern California was impacted by a landfalling tropical system was back in 1939.  Hopefully, Hilary weakens enough into just a welcomed rainstorm at a time of the year it's supposed to be dry?  Ironic, we're supposed to be wet during June, July & August, but not this year.  They're gonna get wet and we're not.




You want to feel great air?  Head to the Great Lakes.  The heat dome over the South is building northward and will spread eastward over this weekend.




We set another record today, but at least the 75-80 dew points haven't returned yet. Yes, that hazy sky is smoke.




So, keep the beer cold, the margaritas frozen and enjoy a way too hot August protected from any tropical activity.  Each day we get closer to October!  Stay tuned & stay smart this weekend.  


No comments: