Gulf Low Unlikely, Heaviest Rains Florida Beaches

For the past several days I have been talking about how models were hinting a area of low pressure might form over the Gulf for this week.  NHC has finally shaded in an area for possible development late Wednesday into Thursday, but the keep chances for formation very low at 20%.  In addition, both the Euro & GFS models are less bullish for development in their morning model runs.

The top graphic is the NHC area for development with the 2nd graphic being the European valid for Wednesday evening followed by the GFS on the bottom.  Both models brush SE LA/MS with some rainfall, but the bulk will aim for the Florida Beaches into south Alabama & Georgia.  We'll take any rainfall to help us in our local drought conditions.  Whatever falls will not help the flow rate on the lower Mississippi.

The set up has 2 tropical systems off the coast of Mexico with an upper level rotation over the Bay of Campeche.  In addition, there is a westward moving tropical wave approaching the Yucatan.    So what will keep whatever forms very weak?  After all. Gulf water temps are still into the 80s.

The 2nd graphic is the deeper oceanic heat content that is dramatically lower in the Gulf compared to the Caribbean.   But it's the strong westerly upper wind shear across the Gulf that will not allow much development and will keep the heaviest rainfall along our coast.  There could be some 4-6" totals from Port Fourchon across Grand Isle, but up over the city we'll be lucky to get an inch.

The upper low over the Great Lakes is bringing chilly air down from Canada, however under the ridge to the west it's in the 70s & 80s.   Dew points remain in the 40s, but that will change as winds have returns off the Gulf.

No rain is falling farther to our north so there is no relief for our low river levels here.  After 2 days of highs in the 70s, we were back 80+ this afternoon.  Morning lows were delightfully cool with 40s north and 50s south.

We have a good opportunity to give us significant rains on Wednesday into Thursday and again late Friday ahead of another cold front.  Since I'm told fish bite better ahead of fronts, I'll be out with Captains Hylton Petit & Johnny Lewis tomorrow.  My next post will be Wednesday PM.  Stay tuned!