Deep Gulf Low To Bring Us Snow? Nooooo!

If you've live here for a long time, you know it doesn't snow very often.  Oh, we might see a few flurries behind an Arctic cold front, but usually there is no accumulation.  Our really big snows have occurred when a blast of cold air pours over us & then a strong area of low pressure develops down over the Gulf.  The low sends moisture up over the shallow layer of freezing air & we can get actually get amounts of snow measured in inches.   I say this because all models are screaming for a Gulf low development this weekend as Nicondra pointed out on her noon programs.

So why won't we get snow this time?  What is missing?   The Arctic air is bottled up in Canada.

It's plenty cold over eastern Canada, but western Canada is well about freezing.  So for us, without the cold air, all we'll get is lots of wind, higher tides & some rain.  How much rain depends on how close the western upper low is as it phases with the Gulf system.  Right now, there is nothing there yet.

It's a complicated weather pattern that could throw many surprises.  On the first satellite view, the orange arrow represent the low level warm flow front the Caribbean.  The lime green arrows are the Pacific/sub-tropical flow with the yellow circle the most likely areas where a surface low will form.  It could make for an exciting/difficult weekend for Florida & up the East Coast.  WPC keeps the heaviest rains way south of our coast, but most of Florida should expect soaking rains of 3-5"+.

The top graphic is valid for Saturday evening with the bottom for Sunday evening.  The red/orange colors depict 4-7" amounts.  Gosh, think what would happen here if those rain amounts came over us with our reduced pumping capacity?  Yikes!

So in the shirt term, clouds will be increasing tomorrow along with winds & tides.  Some coastal flooding is likely on Friday as the Gulf low develops.

Today actually was nice as we reached the mid 60s with filtered sunshine.  Note the NE winds today will turn more easterly for Thursday & Friday before roaring out of the north for Saturday & Sunday.  

The 7 day forecast keeps us below normal/average for the next 7-10 days, but I don't see any really frigid air coming unless the upper East Coast trough (Polar Vortex) develops Christmas week.  I know many of you want to sing "let it snow, let it snow...", but for this weekend it's NO for any snow with this Gulf low.  Since we're in an El Nino pattern, look for more Gulf lows next month.  Stay tuned!