Thursday, December 14, 2023

Strong Gulf Low Coming, Aims For NW Florida...

No major changes to yesterday's thinking as an upper disturbance over the Rockies will interact with the southern jet stream forming a low well south of the Louisiana coast by midday on Saturday.  Our impacts here will be some showers (1-2" totals at most), very strong NNE winds (20-30 mph gusts to 40+) & high tides causing coastal flooding.  NWS has graphics on their website explaining the warnings.




Models form the low south of us and take it to the Florida beaches by early on Sunday.





That's where the heaviest rain totals (3-5") should occur.  Some spots over SE LA/MS might see 1"+, but the low pulls away quickly so I don't anticipate widespread flooding.




The real cold air remains bottled up in northern Canada and it will not come into the lower 48 until the western trough gets over the Great Lakes next week.  Even then, I don't see any freezes coming to us unless you live well north of I-12.






Lots of clouds cover the Gulf, but no surface low has formed yet.  As it does by Saturday, the difference between the large high to the north and the developing low in the Gulf will result in very breezy conditions here.  Be prepared as there might even be some power outages on Saturday. Note the higher dew points (64 at Brownsville) showing up over south Texas.




The next 7-10 days will stay rather cool, but no drastic cold is coming.  Too soon to talk about Christmas weather.  Finally,


I hate watching our local weathercasters showing forecast maps centered so tight (because of out of state consultants) you have no clue why or where the weather is coming.  Start wide & zoom in or start tight & zoom out.   Stay tuned!


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