Wednesday, January 3, 2024

Clippers Keep Coming With Each Stronger Than Previous

In my youth growing up in Hammond, Indiana I can remember the weather systems coming down from Canada called "Alberta Clippers" which were fast moving disturbances roaring from the NW to SE.  Each brought quick bursts of 1-3" of light, fluffy snow that fell in Arctic air masses than were well below freezing.   That isn't happening this year as the main storm track is across the southern states leaving the northern states with little snow or cold.  The first of the southern clippers flew across us this morning leaving generally ,25-50" of rain.  It quickly has moved into the Southern states.



But more are on the way with the next two being stronger than the first.  System # 2 is near Las Vegas with then next up over the Gulf of Alaska.



If you buy into model solutions, you can clearly see each system has deeper, stronger upper support.





The top graphic is current with the weak upper system over the SE with a stronger disturbance over the West Coast.  The middle view is valid for Friday PM with the main upper energy lifting into Missouri.  Because of that, I don't expect to see any severe weather here, nor flooding rains due to the rapid eastward motion.  However, the bottom view valid next Tuesday morning certainly has a better defined upper low much closer to us.  That is the system to watch based on what I'm seeing from the model.



FOX 8 is issuing a FIRST ALERT for both Friday & Monday, but I just don't think Friday will bring us any major issues.   It's late Monday into Tuesday that I'm focusing on.  Hannah Gard gave us the timing on her 4 PM broadcast for Friday.




Looking farther out in time, the model resolution is not as precise, but SPC already has us in a "heads up" area for potential severe storms.




Note, with the deeper upper storm next week, the snow/ice area gets into Oklahoma & northern Arkansas.  We have many days to watch it.  In the short term...





Thursday will start chilly, but should warm up nicely under sunny skies.  I don't see any really warm air returning until Monday PM ahead of that stronger disturbance next week.




With strong winds off the Gulf, we could briefly jump into the 70s IF we get into the warm air sector.  That would also increase our potential for severe weather.   One of these clippers is going to turn into a big Northeastern snow storm.   Oh what "fun" Winter brings!  Stay tuned!

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