Bob Breck's Blog: Models Under-Forecasted Cold Air, Another Hard Freeze Tonight

I watched ALL 3 local major TV weathercasts yesterday with everyone saying morning lows would be 29-32 on the South Shore and 20-25 North Shore. Oops, Mr. Computer Breath didn't quite have it right as north of Lake P. saw some teens while the South Shore at MSY tied their all time record low with 24. That happened around 9 AM, long after the sun had risen. Imagine my reaction getting up before 7 AM and seeing my thermometer reading 26. I quickly started running my water upstairs in the sink farthest from my intake line. It kept dropping after that but I had no issues except trying to go workout.

There was a layer of ice on my windshield and I had no ice scraper! Found these 2 mini scrapers at Auto Zone. Folks up north will laugh at me, but that's all I needed. For $2.50 each, well worth it. We did tied the record at MSY, but remember their records only go back to 1946.

My bird bath almost froze solid and Zack showed us an interesting phenomenon not seen here very often. It looked like smoke coming across the waters of Lake P. Technically, it's called Evaporation Fog as the 20 degree air from the North Shore passed over the 50+ degree waters causing the air to rise and condense into a cloud. Really neat. So what is the computer telling us about Wednesday morning lows?

It makes the North Shore a few degrees colder with the South Shore about the same as today. Bottom line, NWS has a HARD FREEZE WARNING in effect for tonight & tomorrow. We'll all need to drip our water later this evening AFTER the temps get to 28 or lower. The lows south may actually be a little higher IF the winds decrease allowing the air to modify going across the "warmer" waters of the Lake. "Be prepared for the worst & hope for the best" as many emergency managers always tell us.

the surface cold front is pushing down towards the Yucatan with strong north winds (blue arrows) while the southern jet stream (green arrows) streaks in from the WSW. There are no signs of return flow yet. The big picture still has the Polar Vortex rotating around Hudson bay with lobes/spokes of energy swinging around it.

the current upper trough lifts out tomorrow, but another one drops southward for late Thursday.

Even with all day sunshine on Wednesday, highs will struggle to get into the mid to upper 40s. Computer guidance says we'll briefly warm to 60+ on Thursday before we dip back for Friday & Saturday. I will not uncover any of my plants until after the next freeze threat over the weekend.

With some sunshine, temperatures have warmed above freezing in most locations.

No need to run any faucets until later this evening. Watch Bruce at 4 & 5, 9 & 10 PM and use your FOX 8 Weather App. to get current temps. Don't run water until it's absolutely necessary. Finally for you snow geeks...