Prediction...2024 Hurricane Season From Hell

Oh sure, the headline screams over-hype, Much like the old newsroom guidance "if it bleeds, it leads".  Headlines are designed to grab your attention and Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell Analytics did just that back in December 2023 when he issued his first early 2024 season outlook.  His numbers were scary (25-30 named storms) based on warm (above normal/average) Atlantic water temps. and no El Nino.  Now, Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University has issued their preseason outlook, and it pretty much agrees with the Weather Bell Outlook.  Not as high as Weather Bell's, but certainly the greatest numbers in a preseason outlook since they began issuing them back in 1995.

As usual, it's all about location and the Weather Bell outlook focuses more storms into the Caribbean & Gulf than last year.  Remember, the 2023 season ended up with the 4th highest (20) named storms.

But as you can see, most turned before reaching Florida and only 2 made landfall in the Gulf.  So what could keep it not as active as the "experts" predict?  African Dust that lasts into mid August along with a weak Bermuda High allowing storms to recurve like last year.  Perhaps deep easterly winds that shear the storms?  Bottom line, the hype has begun.  It should not change how we prepare.

Our current delightful weather is the result of a deep upper low over Ohio that is keeping the Eastern states in sweaters and coats.  Our next weather maker is off of California and it should stay well to our north.

Our next rain chance won't come until next week with another West coast storm that will track farther to the south.  WPC indicates there will be the potential for 4-8" totals especially to our north.

If you don't get outside during this spell of low humidity, you'll missing out on a feel that might not be back until next October!  Stay tuned!