Debby Downgraded, Inland Flood Threat Increasing

 The purpose of this blog is to get you to think about what information NHC puts out and to add on personal experience based on decades of forecasting tropical activity.   Let me begin with Kudos to the computer models, especially the GFS. which pretty much predicted Debby's track 5 days in advance.  Usually the Euro outperforms the GFS, but not with Debby.

The top is the Spaghetti plots while Debby was still Invest 97-L south of Cuba.  The bottom is the actual track Debby took along Florida's West coast.  I'd say, wow!  That's pretty good and NHC stayed consistent with only minor shifts in the track as she approached the Big Bend.  But did you notice the "wobble" at the end before landfall?  Watching TWC and local weathercasters, no one seems to point that out.  That eastward jog reminded me of Ida's jog that brought her eye wall over parts of SE LA.

It seems to me that the center of Debby has come to a halt just to the east of Perry, FL.

She still has a well defined structure on radar, and even more so on satellite views.  NHC has down graded her to a Tropical Storm and not the main threat will be "historic" heavy rainfall.  Why?  Let's go back to the models that have done so well. Yikes!

That's a 20-30"+ bullseye from Savannah to Charleston.  There may be flooding where you have never flooded before.  I trust all of you in SE GA/SC?NC are ready & paying close attention.  Inland flooding after landfall kills more people than storm surge.  

Not to hype or get anyone nervous, but NHC is highlighting another area for possible development later this week.  I'll focus more on that in my 4 PM post.  Stay tuned!