Ethan Arrives, Lots To Watch, Nothing Ready To Pop

 After being delayed yesterday, my only Grand child (Ethan) arrived this morning and of course we had to get him breakfast.  Pancakes?  Fruit Loops? Bacon & Eggs?  No way.  It had to be down into the French Quarter to get him beignets!

All right, I ate two and Ethan had one.   But it's the powdered sugar that's the key.  Figures he comes to visit on the weekend that will rain every day.  Hadn't rained much all month, but we'll deal with it.  Let's get to the Tropics.  NHC now is highlighting 3 areas of concern.

The circles show that neither area has any concentrated T-Storms, but over time, models do develop both later next week.  Long time to watch.  Focus closer to home.

I've drawn in 2 lows with the one on the right being in the mid levels (10-15,000') with the one on the left near the surface.  The color loop reveals no concentration of storms and NHC only gives this area a slight (20%) chance to develop.  Here's why nothing is forming yet.

Surface winds are less today and so are the wave heights.  Pressure is staying steady so our main concern is we are on the "wet side" of this disturbed weather.  If you get caught under a training band, you could easily receive 2-3"+ in 1-2 hours.

As Amber Wheeler showed on FOX 8 at 4, the heaviest totals will be along the coast.  Until the upper air pattern chances, we'll stay with high rain chances through Monday.

Several models are developing the two Atlantic systems into named storms next week.  We'll need to pay attention IF the first one gets into the Gulf.  Right now, it's too far out to guess and the models haven't been accurate that far out so far this season.  Let's try to enjoy our holiday weekend, even if showers/storms are around.  Stay tuned!